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China Merchants Securities: Investment Guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year From these four aspects, China Merchants Securities said that the investment guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year mainly include the following aspects: 1) From a macro perspective, the support intensity of policies for various economic work is expected to exceed market expectations. Specifically, the fiscal policy orientation is positive, deficit ratio will arrange or keep it above 3%, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be further expanded, and the scale and investment field of special bonds are expected to be further extended; Monetary policy mentioned "timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates", and the goal of liquidity policy changed from balance to loose tendency, which will bring room for valuation improvement of A shares. 2) From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, consumption will become the main line of investment next year: the meeting will continue the deployment of the Politburo meeting in December, and in the order of writing, consumption will still be placed at the top of next year's key tasks. In terms of specific measures, it is planned to boost consumption mainly through two aspects. First, increase the income of residents; The second is to increase consumption scenarios. 3) Focus on scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new quality productive forces, and grasp two main lines: this meeting focused on "carrying out' artificial intelligence+'action and cultivating future industries". Artificial intelligence has appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for three consecutive years. Future industries have also appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for two consecutive years. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on artificial intelligence+and future industries. 4) Focus on "comprehensive improvement of' involution' competition": In terms of "involution" competition, photovoltaic industry is the representative in emerging industries. Recently, in addition to self-regulatory measures such as industry association initiatives, the photovoltaic export tax rebate rate has been lowered and industry norms have been updated to further control new production capacity. The policy is further introduced to curb the "involution" competition of photovoltaics. It is recommended to pay attention to photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries.The concept of robot bottomed out and Tianqi shares rose linearly, and Tianqi shares rose linearly. Before that, the construction industry went out of 9 boards in 10 days, Astar went out of 13 boards in 21 days, and Tongda Power went up. Hanyu Group, Maihe, Jiangsu Reilly, Hanwei Technology and Best were among the top gainers.On the 13th, silver fell by 1.91%, and the latest main contract positions changed as follows. According to the exchange data, as of December 13th, the main contract silver was 2,502, up or down by -1.91%, with a turnover of 1,004,900 lots. The position data showed that the top 20 seats were net, and the difference position was 30,444 lots. The total turnover of silver futures contracts was 1,505,900 lots, an increase of 417,500 lots over the previous day. The first 20 seats in the contract held 335,600 lots, a decrease of 15,200 lots from the previous day. The short positions in the top 20 seats of the contract were 251,300 lots, an increase of 17,500 lots over the previous day. (Sina Futures)


Vegetable oil fell by 1.90% on the 13th, and the latest main contract positions changed as follows. According to the exchange data, as of December 13th, the main contract vegetable oil closed at 2,505, up or down by -1.90%, with a turnover of 535,800 lots. The position data showed that the top 20 seats were clear, and the difference position was 21,545 lots. The total turnover of vegetable oil futures contracts was 593,700 lots, a decrease of 112,100 lots from the previous day. The first 20 seats in the contract held 232,900 lots, a decrease of 3,819 lots from the previous day. The short positions in the top 20 seats of the contract were 254,200 lots, an increase of 687 lots over the previous day. (Sina Futures)The privatization of Avenue Industry is nearing completion. Patec, a precision engineering manufacturer, and related parties have accumulated 85.27% of the shares of Broadway Industrial Group, and the acquisition of Avenue Industry is nearing completion. According to the announcement, the offer price is S $0.197 per share, which is the final price and will not be further increased. The deadline for the offer is 5: 30 pm on December 23rd.Meijin Energy has set up a new coal washing company with 100 million yuan. According to the enterprise investigation APP, Shanxi Meijin Taiyue Coal Washing Co., Ltd. was recently established, with Wu Yong as the legal representative and a registered capital of 100 million yuan. Its business scope includes: coal washing; Sales of coal and products; Coal-based activated carbon and other coal processing. Enterprise investigation shows that the company is wholly owned by Meijin Energy.


FedEx signed a memorandum of understanding with Hong Kong Customs on the facilitation of cross-border express customs clearance. FedEx announced that it signed a memorandum of understanding with Hong Kong Customs on the facilitation of cross-border express customs clearance (CEFA) yesterday and became the first company to join the memorandum of understanding, which is expected to benefit from stable and efficient customs clearance procedures. CEFA aims to improve the efficiency of customs clearance of cross-border cargoes from the Mainland to Hong Kong. According to the Memorandum of Understanding, the Customs and Excise Department will provide customs clearance service for imported cargoes transported from the Mainland to Hong Kong at one of the FedEx service stations in the urban area of Hong Kong, and arrange for imported cargoes currently transported to Hong Kong by FedEx Guangzhou Asia-Pacific transshipment center to be transported by cross-border trucks equipped with electronic locks (E-locks) and global positioning systems (GPS).The organization looks forward to the semiconductor industry in 2025: the AI ​ ​ replacement tide leads the growth, and the semiconductor ETF(512480) may usher in new development opportunities. On December 13, the semiconductor ETF(512480) closed down by 1.38%, with a turnover of 1.671 billion yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and Zhaoyi Innovation leads the rise. In terms of decline, SMIC led the decline. CICC said that after the boom in 2024, it is expected that the inventory of the semiconductor industry will stabilize and the relationship between supply and demand will be more balanced in 2025. With the gradual landing of AI cloud and end demand, domestic semiconductor elements will usher in new development opportunities. In addition, the AI-changing tide has a pulling effect on the downstream demand of the semiconductor design sector, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the semiconductor design sector in 2025 and inject new vitality into the industry.The implementation of personal pension system will bring multiple impacts. According to CCTV news, the implementation of personal pension system will have a far-reaching impact on China's old-age security system. This system aims to improve the multi-level old-age security system, encourage individuals to participate in old-age savings, and improve the level of life security after retirement. In addition, the establishment of individual pension accounts will provide new business growth points for financial institutions and help the development of the capital market. On the whole, this move is expected to promote the transformation of the concept of social pension and promote the sustainable development of the pension service industry.

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